A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. Can I conceive of a team better equipped to address the market needs that might walk through our doors tomorrow? And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. The problem was that some tests never exhibited the correct straight line for analysis, although it was always possible to find an apparent oneone that would lead, in many cases, to completely erroneous results. Its possible for entrepreneurs to create something with huge impact. We just could never, never, never get it quite there., JL: The component cost. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. Underlying this view was his definition and differentiation of the relevant disciplines and his belief in their generally excellent condition in Germany. One of the most notorious tech business failures of the 1990s was the Iridium satellite constellation, but that was brought down by bizarrely self-sabotaging decisions on the part of Motorola, and when Motorola was finally removed from the equation, Iridium found its market, and 2017 saw the launch of the second Iridium satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT, with competition from other since-launched satellite constellations, including SpaceXs own nascent Starlink (aiming at global broadband Internet) which launched no less than 60 satellites in May2019. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers flagship magazine, presents authoritative briefs and features on technology advancements in exploration and production, oil and gas industry issues, and news about SPE and its members. Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. As Digital Promise team members who have researched and supported teachers' use of educational technology, we want to recognize and celebrate your successes. Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. It can reasonably be said that time was unripe for digital computing as an industrial technology. However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin wont make a search engine. Researchers in general have no incentive to say, this is not the right time, wait another 20 years for Moores law to make it doable, even if everyone in the field is perfectly aware of thisPalmer Luckey: I spent a huge amount of time readingI think that there were a lot of people that were giving VR too much credit, because they were working as VR researchers. Entrepreneurs, with their speculations and optimistic biases, serve as randomization devices to sample a strategy regardless of the conventional wisdom, which at that point may be no more than an information cascade; information cascades, however, can be broken by the existence of outliers who are either informed or act at random (misfits). ): you will not be the next Bill Gates, because Bill Gates was not the first and only Bill Gates, he was, pace Stiglers Law, the last Bill Gates13; many people made huge fortunes off OSes, both before and after Gatesyou may have forgotten Wang, but hopefully you remember Steve Jobs (before, Mac) and Steve Jobs (after, NeXT). With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. Its a universal rule. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. and less. Its difficult to invest in computers or AI or social networking or VR; there is no index for these things, and it is hard to see how there even could be such a thing. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. End-users love cryptography, right? If people dont want to go to the ball game, how are you going to stop them? as Yogi Berra asked.) Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. Many of these models may require transients much too long to be practical in a well test, but may be quite effective for analysis of production data (Fig. Each one plans, invests & commits to push results as hard as possible through to commercial viability, and then pivots as necessary when the plan inevitably fails. What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! "They say, timing is everything. COWEN: Two last questions. And, incidentally, offering an example of why stock markets are fine with paying executives so much: a good executive can createor destroythe entire company. Home robotics will have increased just as you believedkeikaku doori!yet your index fund gone bankrupt (reindex when one of the robotics companies collapses? I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. 35 years. During that time, I became interested in the notion that petroleum engineers might be better educated with a broader scope, what I would call energy engineering. Remember, you dont know anything else about the tech landscape in the 2000s, like that Google will go way up from its IPO, you dont know about Apples revival under Jobsall you know is that a social network will exist and will grow hugely. The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. While each time a failed option is tried, it may seem irrational (how many times must VR fail before people finally give up on it), it was still rational in the big picture to give it a try, as this collective strategy collectively minimizes regret & maximizes collective total long-term returnsas long as failed options arent tried too often. Cook calls this cracking the nut. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. I told him he was right, but that pressure data were quite noisy, that the analytical solutions were differentiable, but surely not real, data. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. After10 hours of deliberation, he was acquitted. o Activity Report: Technology and Past ( interviews with elders) o Nature's Longest Threads by Janaki. Technological forecasts are often surprisingly prescient in terms of predicting that something was possible & desirable and what they predict eventually happens; but they are far less successful at predicting the timing, and almost always fail, with the success (and riches) going to another. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. And Lanier implies that Japan alone spent a lot of money: Jaron Lanier: The components have finally gotten cheap enough that we can start to talk about them as being accessible in the way that everybodys always wantedMoores law is so interesting because its not just the same components getting cheaper, but it really changes the way you do things. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? In reality, until quartz gauges were introduced in formation testers, this argument was highly ill-conceived, but it certainly provoked a lot of animated discussion. I was expecting smartphones to take off in mid 2004 and was disappointed over and over again. ], Investing in Good Ideas That Look Like Bad Ideas, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western. After all, why would they say no? We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. Can you at least profit from your knowledge of the outcome? Balakrishnan and B V Sreekantan. Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. He could spot the points where the enemys line was broken, and the reverse salients in his own. Reflection of light occurs when waves hit a surface that, instead of absorbing radiation, bounce the waves away from the surface. rife with examples of the prescient failing. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. If 2020 has taught us anything, it's that the key is to stay nimble, adaptive, and be prepared for unexpected change. Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. 1. Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be entreated not to hit the nail at all. Then after your special knowledge has become public knowledge, the robotics company goes public, and by EMH, their shares become a normal investment. Or look at computers: imagine an early adopter of an Apple computer saying everyone will use computers eventually! Yes, but not for another few decades, and in the long run, we are all dead. At his trial, Fred testified that as president of the Enterprise board and with supporting letters from his sisters, he had authority to commit the board. In a Governing . Start small. In my first draft of this essay in 2012, I noted that we see what looks like a Bitcoin bubble as the price inflates from ~$0 to $171.5$130.02012yet, if Bitcoin were the Real Deal, we would expect large price increases as people learn of it and it directly gains value from increased use, an ecosystem slowly unlocking the fancy cryptographic features, etc. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? UHF RFID systems use frequencies in the 860-960 MHz range and can be used to detect as many as 1,000+ tags per second as far as 10-15 meters from the reader, making them ideal for wide and busy finish lines where several tagged participants may be crossing in a short space of time. Whatsoever thy hand findeth to do, do it with thy might; for there is no work, nor device, nor knowledge, nor wisdom, in the grave, whither thou goest. (DARPA indeed saw itself as much like a VC firm.). While I was at Stanford, my student colleagues included Syed Tariq and Hugo Sandal,4 two other Ramey students who wrote the first papers using the Stehfest algorithm5,6 to numerically transform analytical models for well testing from Laplace space into real space. Starting a new pastime such as playing tennis, learning to paint, riding a horse, or listening to new types of music can provide a fun opportunity to reflect on what and how you are thinking and learning. Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. Theyd been known for decades. After 20 years with Schlumberger in various positions, she returned to academia as a full professor of chemical engineering at the U. of Houston, where she has served as Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program as an adjunct professor since January 2000. So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the fait accompli. I doubt it. Certainty is irrelevant, you still have problems making use of this knowledge. Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. They grew fast, roflstomped other social networks, stayed private, and post-IPO, public investors have not profited all that much compared to even late investors. Our respected leader admitted his culpability to the Federal Express board of directors and to the investors and lenders we were counting on to support the second round of the private placement financing. So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? Everything of importance has been said before by somebody who did not discover it. (How do you force all relevant companies to sell tradable stakes? It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". It is universally admitted that the unicorn is a supernatural being and one of good omen; thus it is declared in the Odes, in the Annals, in the biographies of illustrious men, and in other texts of unquestioned authority. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. Want to read all 2 pages? He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. However, the pressure data showed the same oscillatory behavior. Its a weird perspective to take, but we can think of other technologies which may be like this. You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. Some of these devices are: Cellphones Watches Computer Radio We do not know what a unicorn is like. Previously, Ms. Ehlig-Economides has taught at Texas A&M University, Stanford University and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. So, what Babbage should have aimed for is not making a practical thinking machine which could churn out naval tables, but demonstrating that a programmable thinking machine is possible & useful, and currently limited by the slowness & size of its mechanical logicso that transistors could be pursued with higher priority by governments, and programmable computers could be created with transistors as soon as possible, instead of the historical course of a meandering piecemeal development where Babbages work was forgotten & then repeatedly reinvented with delays (eg. Firefox: we are going to build a better web browser, even though 90% of the worlds computers already have a free one built in. What do the curves say? God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. The concept behind antireflection technology is to control the light used in an optical device in such a manner that the light rays reflect from surfaces where it is intended and . The poem Fears and Scruples by Robert Browning prophesies the work of Kafka, but our reading of Kafka noticeably refines and diverts our reading of the poem. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. While upper management panders to environmentalists, the young minions keep slogging it out, delivering the oil and gas that is desperately needed all over the world as though there will be no end to it. Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. Conclusion. . Granted that an ICS can be developed, is now the right time to mount the effort? If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. We continued to be in desperate financial trouble, particularly with our suppliers. One guy will do most of the work. Reflection Paper About Technology Reflection Paper #1 It is 2017 and it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines. We know that a given animal with a mane is a horse, and that one with horns is a bull. You should start from 6:00 AM until 7:00 PM. The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. And the Media Lab wasnt the only one, General Magic (1989), had an almost identical vision of a networked future powered by small touchscreen devices. IBM and Apple both went nearly bankrupt at points, and Microsofts stock has been flat since 1999 or whenever (translating to huge real losses and opportunity costs to long-term holders of it). Within industrial research organizationsand, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. At the same time, our entire lifestyle and that of the developing world depends on energy. They use their discretion to surface proposals that have at least one champion, regardless of whether there are any detractorsThe results show that there is greater ex ante uncertainty in the ARPA-E research portfolio compared to proposals with the highest mean scores (Model1). Or take niche visionary technologies: if cryonics was correct in principal, yet turned out to be worthless for everyone doing it before 2030 (because the wrong perfusion techniques or cryopreservatives were used and some critical bit of biology was not vitrified) while practical post-2030 say, it would simply be yet another technology where visionaries were ultimately right despite all nay-saying and skepticism from normals but nevertheless wrong in a practical sense because they jumped on it too early, and so they wasted their money. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . As we discussed earlier, optogenetics and expansion microscopy both begin from papers from other fields, some of which are quite old and which mostly had been ignored by other people. timing the adoption of a new the strategic alternatives open to competing ing real option approach seems to provide a technology. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Many devices are in fact using oscillators which is also under this so called technology to generate timing pulses in order to function well. (This is assisted by the fact that patents no longer require even the pretense of a working model.) It will only do one thing well, and youll have to move all of your content to use it. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. But just by trial and error, we found out how to do it, and the error was essential. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. Machine learning, deep learning, is one of the hot topics of our time, but a lot of the math was worked out decades agobackpropagation, for example, in the 1980s and 1990s. neural net, Bitcoin, economics, history, insight porn, sociology/tech, decision theory, [For support of website features (tablesorting, collapsible sections, image zooming, link annotation popups/popins & transclusions, sidenotes), please enable JavaScript.]. In the current time people can 't imagine their life without technology. QR code? She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. That was inconceivable before because it would have been just so expensive to do that calculation. Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. I knew immediately that Bourdet was really on to something. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. The timeliness of your word is surely on point.". The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. Stehfest, H.: Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms,, Wagner, P.B., Economides, M.J., and Ehlig-Economides, C.A. Such a device would not have been aimed at the then unattainable goal of economic viability; but its successful demonstration might, just conceivably, have greatly accelerated matters when the time was finally ripe. Whatever the evidence, the fundamental question VCs are trying to answer is: Why back this founder against this problem set versus waiting to see who else may come along with a better organic understanding of the problem? 64): BOYDEN: One idea is, how do we find the diamonds in the rough, the big ideas but theyre kind of hidden in plain sight? Though, the right moment cannot be known exactly in advance, so attempts to forecast will typically be off by years or worse. The world economy grows at something like 2% a year, labor costs generally seem to go up, prices of computers and robotics usually falls Do industry projections expect to grow their sales by <25% a year? 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